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When Will Oil Supply Overtake Demand?


1. When Will Crude Oversupply Finally Come?

- The ongoing US-OPEC public spat continues to revolve around the oil market’s immediate prospects, namely its moving into oversupply following several months of global stock draws.

- Latest outlooks from OPEC, IEA, and EIA all indicate that markets should flip into oversupply in Q1-2021, with EIA forecasting it would average some 900,000 b/d over January-March.

- Whilst OPEC remains ambiguous on its own production strategy for 2022, the energy agencies seem to agree that next year should see higher-than-expected non-OPEC supply, primarily from the US, but also from Canada and Guyana.

- Projections of soon-to-come oversupply only corroborate OPEC’s narrative vis-à-vis the Biden Administration that production need not be increased as the market would anyways balance itself out soon.

2. Saudi Crude Exports Move Within 5-Year Range

- Latest JODI data suggests that Saudi Arabia’s crude exports in September averaged 6.52 million b/d, the highest since January, moving into the 5-year range for the first time since May 2020.

- Simultaneously, Saudi crude stocks have bounced back from their lowest-ever readings in September, adding more than 3 million barrels to a total of 136.5 million barrels.

- Following higher-than-average crude burning rates over the summer months, the kingdom’s use of crude for power generation fell to 543,000 b/d in September and is bound to fall even further…

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  • Donato Vacelli on November 23 2021 said:
    Never. The world never stop needing oil. Even the recent big world climate change summit had several large diesel generators charging up EVs for the leaders, and wealthy hypocrites flying in on polluting private jets The hypocrisy of it all is sickening.

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