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U.S. Crude Exports Are Increasingly Competitive

1. WTI-Brent Gap Makes US Crude Exports Attractive

- With US crude benchmark dropping to a mid-$80/barrel environment lately, the continuous discrepancy between ICE Brent and WTI is incentivizing crude exports out of the Gulf Coast.

- With no hurricane to disrupt loadings so far this year, the robust transatlantic flows have been taking place in spite of soaring freight costs, to the tune of $5-6 per barrel, tripling year-on-year.

- The ICE Brent-WTI spread rose to almost $7 per barrel lately so the temptation to move barrels into more expensive European markets has been guiding US crude exporters lately.

- If there is no disruption to the pace of loading this month, September 2022 is set to witness the highest monthly rate of crude exports, maybe even reaching 3.7 million b/d.

2. European Carmakers Want Slower EV Rollout

- European fuel producers have started urging EU authorities to reconsider their recently introduced 2035 ban on selling new internal combustion engines, Platts reports.

- Rising costs of battery materials, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war, will slow down the pace of fleet turnover and ramp up the overall price of new EVs.

- Western European gasoline and diesel demand peaked in 1992 and 2006, respectively, and have been declining since currently assessed at 1.8 million b/d and 5.6 million b/d.

- Thanks to strong growth last year China has become the largest global market for EVs, though…

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