Putin Is Not Peter The Great

Putin is not Peter the Great. That is a good starting point for examining the position in which the Russian leader now finds himself. 

The military defeat now clearly shows a breakdown in reality at the Russian Defense Ministry. Voices that have only been praising the Russian ‘special operation’ on the podium are now coming out with a very different tone. The most notable voice is that of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who has all but point blank suggested that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has no idea what’s going on on the ground in Ukraine. Kadyrov would be happy to show him, of course, and it is interesting that he has not been chastised for his statements. 

This suggests that all is not well among the Kremlin elite, and Putin’s damage-control efforts will create even more damage to control–such as the partial mobilization he just ordered, resulting in mass protests, mass arrests, and a rush to the exit for military-aged men. 

The ruse is now up for Putin at home. He can no longer pretend this isn’t a war or that it’s just a simple ‘operation’ with few casualties that the Russian public can easily rally around. No amount of media control can now cover up a military mobilization. So, the cat is out of the bag, so to speak, and it’s not going to go well at home. (Over 1,000 arrests by the end of the night following the mobilization call speaks volumes). 

Don’t expect a coup. This isn’t the beginning of the end, but it has weakened Putin in the face of the siloviki. And the silent masses who don’t openly oppose the war because of the repression associated with doing so and because it was not directly affecting them will now start to see things differently. 

Militarily, defeat continues, and without a major structural change in the military leadership or without resorting to a nuclear option–as has been threatened–Ukraine will continue to take advantage of this setback. 

On the weaponized gas front, there is no meaningful victory, despite Europe’s looming energy crisis. By most accounts, Europe can survive the winter, with its gas storage nearly full already. Next year will be tough if Russia fails to restore Nord Stream 1 flows, for which it is sacrificing major revenues. 

Perhaps Putin can claim a collection of other emerging victories that can be used for future leverage, as well. One of those victories will be the strengthening of the far-right across Europe, suggesting a potentially prolonged period of disunity. The far-right has emerged stronger against the backdrop of the crisis, and if nothing else, Russia is adept at fomenting and instigating such developments.

None of what is happening in Ukraine, however, is any sort of definitive defeat. Not by a long shot. It’s a fracture in Moscow’s machine, but it’s also a very dangerous one that has cornered Putin both at home and abroad. It would be unwise to grow complacent at this point. It’s going to be a very bloody winter.