• 4 minutes End of Sanction Waivers
  • 8 minutes Balancing Act---Sanctions, Venezuela, Trade War and Demand
  • 11 minutes Mueller Report Brings Into Focus Obama's Attempted Coup Against Trump
  • 14 minutes What Would Happen If the World Ran Out of Crude Oil?
  • 3 hours New German Study Shocks Electric Cars: “Considerably” Worse For Climate Than Diesel Cars, Up To 25% More CO2
  • 1 hour Permafrost Melting Will Cost Us $70 Trillion
  • 3 hours Nothing Better than Li-Ion on the Horizon
  • 7 hours Occidental Offers To Buy Anadarko In $57 Billion Deal, Topping Chevron
  • 4 hours UNCONFIRMED : US airstrikes target 32 oil tankers near Syria’s Deir al-Zor
  • 7 hours Russia To Start Deliveries Of S-400 To Turkey In July
  • 7 hours Facebook Analysts Expect Earnings Will Reinforce Rebound
  • 23 hours Countries with the most oil and where they're selling it
  • 11 hours ..
  • 3 hours How many drilling sites are left in the Permian?
  • 24 hours Section 232 Uranium
  • 1 day China To Promote Using Wind Energy To Power Heating
Alt Text

Investors Unconvinced By Halliburton’s Shale Optimism

Oilfield services firm Halliburton just…

Alt Text

Has Trump Given Up On Keeping Oil Prices Low?

While Trump’s decision not to…

Alt Text

Why This Rally In Oil Won’t Last

Oil prices rallied on the…

Editorial Dept

Editorial Dept

More Info

Trending Discussions

This Previously Reliable Signal Looks Set To Flash Again

In trading, there are very few reliable technical signals, especially when it comes to predicting longer-term moves. Long-term shifts in direction usually come about due to fundamental changes in supply and demand, so past price action, the basis of technical analysis, is not a very reliable indicator. Some, though, are more reliable than others, and over the last two years there has been one signal for crude futures that has been worth watching. I wrote about it a few weeks ago, and is now close to being triggered for the fifth time in that period. It has been right, to varying degrees on all four previous occasions.

That signal is Relative Strength Index (RSI), or rather a slightly modified version of it.

RSI measures the strength of moves up and down in price over a given number of time periods. You don’t really need to know exactly how it is calculated, although if you do the information can be found here. Suffice it to say that it results in a number between 0 and 100 and that there are two signal lines, at 30 and 70. Crossing below 30 is considered to represent an oversold state, and therefore signals a buy, while above 70 signals the opposite.

Like all technical analysis, the biggest problem with RSI is that it can easily give false signals. That tendency can be reduced by looking for two successive crosses of the line and waiting to see a return to the “normal” band before acting. Then, if that fails take a small loss and if there…

Trending Discussions


Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News