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The Slow Rebound Of Upstream Oil Investment

1. Disregarding Supply Shocks, OPEC+ Sticks to Conservative Policy

OPEC+ approved another 432,000 b/d increase in production quotas for June 2022, sticking to its conservative attitude despite falling output levels from one of the oil group’s key member, Russia.

Brushing aside risks of Russian output plummeting, OPEC+ indicated that supply/demand indicators point to a balanced market, rubberstamping the decision in 13 minutes.

According to S&P Global Platts, there remain only two countries capable of bringing more idled production back – Saudi Arabia and the UAE – but even their spare capacity will be down to 1.6 million b/d by this July.

With OPEC’s proprietary analysis showing that a further 432,000 b/d would keep markets balanced until October, there is an increasing threat that the oft-mooted NOPEC legislation will gain traction in the US Senate.

2. Unprecedentedly Profitable, Russian Crude Production Faces Future Declines

Despite the recent drop in Russian crude production and differentials, coming on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the country’s tax revenue will increase by 45% year-on-year to more than $180 billion, Rystad Energy forecasts.

Following the crude export drop in March, last month has seen resilient outflows of crude out of Russia’s ports, even though the differential of its main export grade Urals dropped below $30 per barrel vs Dated Brent.


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