• 3 minutes e-car sales collapse
  • 6 minutes America Is Exceptional in Its Political Divide
  • 11 minutes Perovskites, a ‘dirt cheap’ alternative to silicon, just got a lot more efficient
  • 4 hours GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES
  • 16 hours How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy
  • 1 day The United States produced more crude oil than any nation, at any time.
  • 23 hours China deletes leaked stats showing plunging birth rate for 2023
  • 2 days The European Union is exceptional in its political divide. Examples are apparent in Hungary, Slovakia, Sweden, Netherlands, Belarus, Ireland, etc.
  • 7 days Bad news for e-cars keeps coming
Editorial Dept

Editorial Dept

More Info

Premium Content

The Restoration Scenarios For Saudi Oil Supply

Saudi Arabia

Friday September 20, 2019

1. Abqaiq attack and restoration scenarios

- The oil market saw the largest supply disruption in its history last Saturday, with 5.7 mb/d of supply going offline.

- Saudi Arabia says that it has restored 2 mb/d of capacity, and that production would reach pre-attack levels by the end of the month. Still, damaged capacity would take until the end of November to restore. Oil prices plunged on the news, as markets were surprised by the aggressive and optimistic restart schedule.

- Some analysts view it as overly optimistic. “Don’t get too excited. There is clear risk of a slower restart of Saudi Arabian oil production despite the optimistic guidance by Saudi Aramco,” Bjørnar Tonhaugen of Rystad Energy said. The consultancy says that 1.6 mb/d of Arab Light and 0.35 mb/d of Arab Extra Light would remain shut in through October.

- In Rystad’s “slow restart” scenario, the facility would only have 45 percent of capacity operational by the end of September (versus 40 percent currently) and 65 percent by the end of October.

- On the other hand, a “quick restart” case would see 65 percent operational by end-September and 100 percent by the end of October.

2. Abqaiq attack highlights supply risk

- Even if Saudi Arabia succeeds in a quick restart of the Abqaiq facility, the attack shattered the perception of security surrounding Saudi Arabia’s massive oil fields and processing installations.

-…





Leave a comment

Leave a comment




EXXON Mobil -0.35
Open57.81 Trading Vol.6.96M Previous Vol.241.7B
BUY 57.15
Sell 57.00
Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News