The Death of Iran's President Sparked Speculation but Little Else

The death of Iranian President Raisi in a helicopter crash last weekend is not likely to have any immediate impact on the regime itself in terms of the proxy war with Israel, hyper-intense relations with the U.S., or throngs of activists hoping to seed some growth for change. 

The Iranian regime will maintain its current policies and activities without missing a beat. 

No blame has been laid as an investigation into the cause of the crash continued all week, most likely ruling out the development as being used for geopolitical leverage with either the U.S. or Israel. 

Speculation, of course, has soared, that either Israel or the U.S. engineered the crash, or that it was the work of Balochistan militants … or even that it was an inside job at a time when the Supreme Leader’s succession is on the agenda. In the end, it could have just been what it looks like - an accident, possibly helped along by aging helicopters deprived by sanctions of parts. 

With the momentum lost and the chaos this creates in the halls of power in Tehran, there is little opportunity now to create a geopolitical scenario out of Raisi’s death. Oil prices have already written the event off the books, responding upwards only briefly on Sunday following news of Raisi’s crash but losing traction soon afterward. 

The bigger question now shifts a bit away from Israel and toward the Gulf countries and a U.S. missile defense pact …

This week, American officials attended a summit in Riyadh to garner support for a regional defense project. Effectively a regional missile shield, the project has now gained theoretical momentum after Israel managed to intercept Iranian missiles in April following the Israeli leveling of its diplomatic facilities in Syria, which claimed the life of a key Iranian general.

There will be severe reluctance to fully and openly jump on this American defense ship; although the timing is not coincidental. Western air defense has been on parade recently … helping Israel intercept Iranian missiles and taking down Houthi drones in the Red Sea–drones that could potentially reach the Mediterranean, or so Washington is arguing now as it attempts to garner GCC support. The successes are not likely to go unnoticed. 

The Saudis, of course, have long coveted American security guarantees, along with civilian nuclear and other advanced tech. The Biden administration is holding out on this. It, too, has something it wants: Saudi normalization of ties with Israel. The Saudis also demand a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine–something that this week also garnered support in the UN from Norway, Spain, Ireland, and Poland. A US-Saudi pact is now said to be “weeks away”, but Netanyahu could still stand in the way, under far-right pressure.