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More Volatility To Come For Oil In October

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If you are someone who has been reading my articles for a while, you will be aware that I try to be accountable if nothing else. I make mistakes and miscalls, like everyone does, but I learned a long time ago that one of the biggest factors impacting success or failure in trading is being able to understand and freely admit that. Doing that as a writer, however, makes no sense. Readers tend to judge financial writers on their immediate impression of each article they write, and, like bad traders, they remember the good trades and forget the bad. So, why damage my brand by pointing out a time when I got something as wrong as can be? I can’t say why because it makes no logical sense, but doing so is so ingrained in me at this point that I just can’t help myself, and it does sometimes have advantages.

This week, for example, I am writing a mea culpa regarding one of the worst calls I have made for a while. Right at the start of this month, I said that I would be trading WTI futures with a short bias for a few weeks. Here is the chart since then…

As you might imagine, favoring short positions during a time that looks like that on the chart hasn’t been particularly profitable. It hasn’t been a complete disaster because, as I pointed out in that piece, for me, “short bias” doesn’t mean going short and watching and waiting, nor does it mean taking only short positions intraday, but September hasn’t been a great…





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EXXON Mobil -0.35
Open57.81 Trading Vol.6.96M Previous Vol.241.7B
BUY 57.15
Sell 57.00
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