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Has Oil Demand Peaked?

1. BP sees oil demand already at a peak

- BP (NYSE: BP) made major headlines this week when it released its latest energy outlook, which laid out three scenarios, all of which show oil demand either already having peaked, or peaking in the next few years in the most optimistic scenario.

- In BP’s middle-of-the-road scenario (“Rapid), oil demand falls by half by 2050 to under 55 mb/d, while a more ambitious climate-focused “Net Zero” scenario leads to an 80 percent decline in demand. “Demand for oil falls over the next 30 years,” BP said in the report. “The scale and pace of this decline is driven by the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation.”

- At the same time, BP sees natural gas demand mostly unchanged through 2050 in the more, holding up much better than crude oil. In the business-as-usual scenario, natural gas demand actually rises by 35 percent. But in the “Net Zero” scenario sees gas demand falling by 40 percent.

- BP has staked a claim as the first oil major to jump on board with the “peak demand” mantra, and the British oil giant has plans to transition into a diverse energy company, which includes ramping up renewables and cutting oil and gas production by 40 percent over the next decade.

2. Exxon’s fall from grace

- ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) has seen its position erode rapidly in recent years, losing 60 percent of…





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