A Major Power Play In Libya

Libya: A New Twist to Haftar’s Power Play

Turkey would like the world to think that the resignation of the eastern government this week signifies the weakening of General Haftar. The opposite is true. This clears the way for Haftar and weakens Turkey’s power in the country.  

Protests that are engulfing Tobruk in eastern Libya—Haftar’s stronghold—may not be what they seem. This week has seen the resignation of the eastern interim government of Abdullah al-Thani. That resignation will make it impossible for Speaker of Parliament Aguila Saleh to agree to any sort of a peace deal with the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. 

Also take note that the protests--particularly intense in the eastern city of Benghazi--have a very specific emphasis: Corruption. And protesters are conveniently calling on the military (read: Haftar) to sort out that corruption—hence al-Thani’s resignation. In other words, al-Thani is linked to Saleh, and Haftar wants them out of the way, which opens the door for the military to assume full control in Benghazi.

Saleh has been a thorn in Haftar’s side since he began jockeying for power by trying to push for a peace deal with the GNA that would sideline Haftar. Saleh mistakenly thought that because growing ranks of Western officialdom were calling for a ceasefire and peace agreement that he would be able to win this game. He will not win, and this is now clear.  

Throughout the protests, Haftar gets to be the hero who supports them, so this is a major PR coup. 

But al-Thani isn’t the only major resignation this week: Back in the west of Libya, in the capital Tripoli, Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj is also expected to resign, with his most recent target date being the end of October. 

As Turkey’s best friend in Libya, this will make Ankara incredibly nervous after all the deals the two have cut recently—deals in which Turkey is hoping to get a cut of Libya’s oil and gas riches. Sarraj is also the one who brokered the brazen deal with Ankara to demarcate the maritime border to ensure that Turkey doesn’t get cut out of future Mediterranean oil and gas exploration and infrastructure. If Sarraj resigns, that deal is largely null and void, which would be a major win for Haftar in Libya. 

Another indication that this is all Haftar’s move is this: At the same time, the general has promised to lift the oil blockade, reopen the ports and let the oil flow again--this weekend. He would only do that if he had the upper hand, so something big is going down in Tripoli. Keep an eye on Sarraj’s planned resignation.