Explaining the Rising Tensions Between Iran and Pakistan

Iran breached Pakistani airspace on Tuesday, launching a drone strike across the border into Balochistan, targeting the bases of the Sunni militant group, Jaish Al Adl. The drone strike is said to have claimed the lives of two children, and Pakistan vowed retaliation. Because this strike comes on the heels of Iranian strikes in Syria and Iraq, it is being described as an escalation of the regional conflict that followed the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel and Israel's heavy-handed retaliation. However, this is not directly related to the Israel-Hamas conflict or the widening of that conflict by proxy or otherwise in Lebanon, Syria, or Iraq. 

Tensions are heightened right now in the region, so Tuesday’s attack on Pakistan carries more weight, but it is not the first time Iran has targeted this militant group in the border region. Pakistan is a country that is around 90% Sunni, with a Shi’ite minority, while Iran is Shi’ite, with a Sunni Baloch minority. The Iran-Pakistan border is some 1,000 kilometers long and the attack was in Balochistan, the largest province in Pakistan, which borders Iran. 

Balochistan has been in a situation of low-level insurgency for many years, and there is a fair amount of cross-border activity on the part of the Sunni militant group operating there. The group’s founder and former leader was captured and executed by Iran in 2010. The group’s main target is Iranian security forces. The U.S. has also designed Jaish Al Adl as a terrorist organization. 

The multi-ethnic Balochistan province in Pakistan is highly restive, and more so since the Chinese have begun using this area of Pakistan as a key infrastructure feature for its BRI ambitions. These projects have resulted in forced relocations in Balochistan, at best, and violent attacks, at worst. Baloch militants have attacked the infrastructure projects, the most important of which is the Gwadar Port expansion—an essential feature of China’s work in the country. To achieve their BRI ambitions, the sentiment seems to be that the Baloch militants are a major obstacle that needs to be dealt with. 

For this reason, we question Pakistan’s will to respond to the Iranian drone strike in any meaningful way; though it will certainly pay lip service through publicly aired angry condemnation to prevent further dangerous unrest in the province. We include Pakistan’s strike on Sistan Balochistan late on Wednesday, on the Iranian side of the border, in this “not meaningful” category. It was not meant to escalate the situation with Iran; rather, the strike was intended to appease restive Balochistan. 

With regard to Iran’s initial attack on Pakistani territory, the only real takeaway here is Tehran’s lack of creativity in strategy in dealing with its security threats. There is no strategy other than a missile barrage, and this does nothing to deter the threats lining up against Iran. Instead, it reveals Iran as a state actor that behaves in exactly the same way as its proxies, such as Hezbollah and its offshoots. This, in turn, makes a similar, likely one-off, Pakistani missile response a fairly easy way out. One, and done, and nothing is achieved for Iran in terms of eliminating threats.