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Traders Cautiously Optimistic About Crude

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Weekly Performance and Overview

As the week concludes, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is experiencing a modest gain, increasing by approximately 1.35%. This movement reflects the interplay of global economic data, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical developments.

US Economic Data and Dollar’s Influence

A significant factor in this week's oil price movement has been the U.S. economic data, particularly the January retail sales figures, which showed a 0.8% decrease. This decline was more substantial than expected, resulting in a 0.3% drop in the U.S. dollar index.

The relationship between the dollar and oil prices is critical; a weaker dollar typically renders oil more affordable for buyers using other currencies, potentially boosting demand. Additionally, these retail figures have renewed expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate economic growth and, in turn, oil demand.

The anticipation of more accommodating monetary policy in response to the retail data, alongside the higher-than-expected inflation figures earlier in the week, has created a complex environment for traders to analyze.

International Energy Administration (IEA) Report Influence

The IEA's latest report also significantly influenced market sentiment. The agency reduced its 2024 oil demand growth forecast to 1.22 million barrels per day from 1.24 million, citing a slowdown in Chinese consumption and a challenging…





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