Oil prices rose on Friday morning after Chinese data showed that China’s crude oil imports rose to the second-highest on record in November, and after U.S. total non-farm payroll employment increased last month.
At 10:39a.m. EST on Friday, WTI Crude was up 0.64 percent at $57.05, and Brent Crude was trading up 0.98 percent up at $62.81.
Chinese crude oil imports increased to 9.01 million bpd last month—the second highest on record, according to data provided by China’s General Administration of Customs.
“The sharp reduction in Saudi Arabian crude oil shipments is not reflected in the Chinese import statistics, meaning that other suppliers such as Russia, Iraq or the U.S. are likely to have stepped into the breach,” Commerzbank said in a note, as carried by Reuters.
In the U.S., total non-farm payroll employment increased by 228,000 in November, and employment continued trending up in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday.
This week, oil prices have been a mixed bag of ups and downs, and on Wednesday they dropped shortly after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 5.6-million-barrel draw in crude oil inventories for the week to December 1, but a major build in gasoline inventories of 6.8 million barrels. Analysts had expected a smaller build of the fuel. Related: Oil Investors Are Growing Impatient
On the global supply side, according to an S&P Global Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials and analysts, OPEC’s production in November dropped by 220,000 bpd from October to its lowest level in six months—to 32.35 million bpd, with declines in oil production in eight out of the fourteen OPEC members.
Rig count data by Baker Hughes later on Friday will likely point the direction in which oil prices will finish this week.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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GNE = Combined net oil exports from (2005) Top 33 net oil exporters (BP + EIA data, total petroleum liquids)
CNI = Chindia’s Combined Net Imports (BP, total petroleum liquids)
ANE = Available Net Exports, GNE less CNI
In regard to China & India ("Chindia") using the BP data base Chindia's Net (total petroleum liquids) Imports, or CNI, increased from 5.1 million bpd in 2005 to 12.0 million bpd in 2016, which I would round off to 5 and 12 million bpd respectively.
Following is a link showing my GNE/CNI chart for 2002 to 2011, using EIA data:
Note that the extrapolation (based on the 2005 to 2011 rate of decline in the GNE/CNI Ratio) shows the ratio falling to just below 4.0 in 2016, on track to approach 1.0 (the Chindia region theoretically consuming 100% of GNE) by 2030.
Using the updated data, the GNE/CNI Ratio fell to 3.8 in 2016, on track to approach 1.0 by the year 2033:
What I define as Available Net Exports (ANE, or GNE less CNI) fell from 40 million bpd in 2005 to 33 million bpd in 2016. This is the volume of Global Net Exports of oil available to importers other than China & India.