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What To Watch Before The Next OPEC+ Meet

With the Fed’s decision to raise rates behind us, there are still multiple uncertainties threatening to keep oil prices unstable. In the current tight market, the Fed’s move to hike rates by 75 basis points sent WTI lower, but by less than 1%. Gasoline prices continue to tick down, but the risk of a slowdown in price reductions on this front remains. 

All eyes are on the OPEC+ meeting next week where the cartel will discuss the plan for September. While the OPEC+ agreement will be officially rolled back in August, the group has agreed to continue its cooperation and meet to discuss the state of the oil market, which Saudi Arabia and Russia discussed as recently as last week. There has been no public talk, however, of resetting any production quotas. So far, 5 OPEC+ sources who spoke to Reuters hinted that the group is likely to keep production targets steady for September, although two OPEC+ sources who spoke to Reuters suggested the group could consider a small increase. That hasn’t stopped the Biden Administration from proclaiming that it was hopeful OPEC+ would announce an increase for September.  

But the bigger item on the list of things to watch is that Saudi Arabia typically announces any pricing changes following these regularly scheduled meetings. If Saudi Arabia announces a price increase, it would be a good indication that it doesn’t have much spare oil to ship and has plans to increase its production for August…

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