• 4 minutes Projection Of Experts: Oil Prices Expected To Stay Anchored Around $65-70 Through 2023
  • 7 minutes Oil prices forecast
  • 11 minutes Algorithms Taking Over Oil Fields
  • 14 mintues NIGERIAN CRUDE OIL
  • 36 mins Socialists want to exorcise the O&G demon by 2030
  • 2 hours UK, Stay in EU, Says Tusk
  • 14 hours How Is Greenland Dealing With Climate Change?
  • 1 hour German Carmakers Warning: Hard Brexit Would Be "Fatal"
  • 9 hours Venezuela continues to sink in misery
  • 20 hours BofA Sees Oil at $35-70
  • 22 hours China Car Sales Plummet: Can Musk Unshovel His Groundbreaking?
  • 1 day How Much Oil Does Aramco Have?
  • 18 hours Regular Gas dropped to $2.21 per gallon today
  • 17 hours "Peace Agreement" Russia vs Japan: Control Over Islands Not Up For Discussion
  • 4 hours Solid-State Batteries
  • 3 hours Orphan Wells
  • 17 hours WSJ: Gun Ownership on Rise in Europe After Terror Attacks, Sexual Assaults

What Is Keeping Oil From Entering A Bear Market?

Rig

October has been a tough month for crude oil. WTI has dropped from $76 to $66 while Brent fell from $86 to $76. We started the month thinking that prices would exist in a tug of war between bullish supply/demand fundamentals and a bearish economic background and instead the market’s been served a relentless flow of bearish news for three straight weeks.

For supply/demand balances, the news flow has been focused on downgrades to 2019 demand forecasts and higher than expected supply gains in the United States. OPEC, the EIA and IEA all downgraded their expected refiner consumption for 2019 and China/U.S. trade disputes have added to concerns from analysts that the economic picture isn’t pretty. In the U.S., crude oil stocks have jumped by an incredible 29m bbls over the past five weeks. To put that in a seasonal context, inventories decreased by 6m bbls during the same period in 2016 and fell by 15m bbls during the same period in 2017. Much of the recent builds have been due to seasonal refiner maintenance but the more powerful force in the market for now seems to be that every key producer globally – with the exception of Iran and Venezuela – is pumping at record levels.

On the macro side we’ve been arguing for several months that a dimming growth outlook for 2019 would help keep a lid on prices. These concerns have been highlighted in October by falling global equity markets from Shanghai to New York which have been a primary driver…

To read the full article

Please sign up and become a premium OilPrice.com member to gain access to read the full article.

RegisterLogin



Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News