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The Overlooked Risk Of A Major Attack In The Middle East

While Russia’s clearly protracted war in Ukraine will continue to cause global energy volatility and uncertainty, the market has taken its eye off a number of developments that portend renewed tensions in the Middle East. As we have mentioned previously, Iran’s 2019 attack on Saudi energy infrastructure was a test run, and given certain developments in 2022, we see a renewed risk of attack for both Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The Iran nuclear deal isn’t happening. It would be nearly impossible at this point, and widespread protests at home are backing Iran into a violent corner. And while Israel has won what it sees as a victory in the death of the nuclear deal revival, the return of Netanyahu as prime minister means we can expect Israeli intelligence to be planning all manner of covert operations to ensure Iran’s nuclear program is idled. That, in turn, will raise tensions in the region and attacks of retribution. The UAE is perhaps a more satisfying target due to its normalization of relations with Israel.

Even as Iran’s domestic problems and the failure of the nuclear deal revival create an atmosphere perfect for raising tensions in the Middle East, Russia’s war with Ukraine is feeding into it all with Tehran’s overt support for Moscow’s military operations. While the West provides weapons to Ukraine, Iran provides weapons to Russia. It is a world war in all but name. Naming, however, is important. A spade is only…


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