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The Iran Nuclear Deal Is Falling Apart

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

In an unexpected move this week, Albania severed diplomatic ties with Iran over a cyberattack and then searched the empty Iranian embassy, where exiting diplomats had burned documents in a rush to vacate within the 24 hours demanded by Tirana. The severing of diplomatic ties was prompted by a cyberattack that took place in late July, exposing the names, addresses, and other personal information of Albanian opposition politicians, and attempting to paralyze public services and create chaos and insecurity. Iran has called the allegations that it was behind the cyberattack “baseless”.

The Iran nuclear deal has lost further momentum following an IAEA report that says it is not possible to “provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively peaceful”, noting the past presence of nuclear material at undeclared sites. Israeli media is now suggesting that the Iran nuclear deal is “off the table”, with unconfirmed reports saying that US officials have indicated such to Israeli officials in recent conversations. Again, this cannot be confirmed.

We continue to monitor the unstable situation in Iraq, which as we noted in previous briefings, has spread to the oil-producing governorate of Basra. This instability has the potential to take a serious amount of oil production offline. The Islamic State is also taking advantage of that instability to regroup and stage new attacks in northern…

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