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The Energy Implications Of A Renewed Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

Azerbaijan Armenia

A fierce resumption of the Armenia-Azerbaijan war over Nagorno-Karabakh is a direct reflection of a breakdown of Russian foreign policy and Russian domestic political uncertainty stemming from the ongoing war in Ukraine. And there is an energy angle—there always is, in war. Either energy is weaponized as a means of gaining territory, or energy is the gain itself.

This week, the conflict intensified significantly, with Azerbaijan reclaiming control, tens of thousands of Armenians fleeing the disputed territory, and Azeri forces arresting billionaire and former Armenian leader of Nagorno-Karabakh, Ruben Vardanyan, who was caught attempting to cross the border into Armenia. The week concluded with the current (until this week) leader of the self-declared republic, Samvel Shahramanyan, announcing the signing of an order to dissolve the state and all of its institutions, whereby the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to exist as of January.

The region is recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan but Armenia took control in the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Moscow has always used Nagorno-Karabakh as leverage for control over its regions since Soviet times. The ongoing and very bloody conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh dates back to the collapse of the Soviet Union. While the Soviets had considered Nagorno-Karabakh to be an autonomous region belonging to Azerbaijan, which in turn was a part of the Soviet Union, it is majority ethnic Armenian. …





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