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The Consolidation Of U.S. Shale

1. Demand stalls on COVID resurgence

- “We think that the oil market would mount a significant rally if the flow of global demand data was strong,” Standard Chartered wrote in a note. “However, there is no fuel for any such rally currently; demand recovery has disappointed, and in some regions prospects are worsening.”

- The investment bank estimates that global oil demand in August stood at 90.39 mb/d, down 592,000 bpd from a month earlier. Demand was down 11.58 mb/d year-on-year, worse than July’s figure of down 10.61 mb/d from a year earlier.

- Looking forward, top analysts at the IEA and U.S. EIA see demand improving in the fourth quarter to down just 5mb/d from a year earlier. “We think those views may prove optimistic,” Standard Chartered wrote. “[I]t seems unlikely that the y/y gap will more than halve in the face of tighter restrictions, and in some cases a return to full lockdown.”

- The bank sees fourth-quarter demand down 7.7 mb/d from the same period in 2019.

2. Copper market in deficit

- The copper market faces a slight deficit of 52,000 tons in 2020, versus a previous estimate of a surplus of around 281,000 tons

- “The deficit is to be generated chiefly by robust apparent Chinese copper demand, as reflected so far in very high imports,” Commerzbank wrote in a note. China’s surge in demand will offset the demand hit to “all other…





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