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Tensions Between The Wagner Group And Russia's Military Mount


Energy Markets

The biggest news of the week in oil markets is, of course, the newest round of OPEC+ production cuts that came out of the June 4 meeting, and which initially sent oil prices higher for the week but ultimately failed to really move the needle in a market distracted by China data that speaks to the overriding demand picture. While OPEC+ and the Saudis maintain that production cuts are only meant to “stabilize” markets and not to force prices higher to suit Saudi budgetary needs, the argument falls apart at the seams. The Saudis need higher oil prices to fund the Crown Prince’s Vision 2030 plans.

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Next up for a newly victorious Erdogan who won another 5-term as president (after leading the country for two decades) is how to avoid a massive financial meltdown as the lira hits new lows, and the million-dollar question is whether he will now choose a more orthodox monetary policy. Turkey is now almost completely out of foreign exchange reserves and will either have to sell off its gold or pander to the IMF (which would mean no more Erdogan-style monetary policy, which was never to raise interest rates, despite inflation. The balance sheet is shot due to Turkey’s pattern of heavily borrowing foreign exchange and then using that to prop up the lira, which cannot go on indefinitely.

The emerging power struggle on the political front line in Moscow between Prigozhin and the Wager mercenary…

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