Sweden Accuses Iran of Using Gangs to Target Israelis and Iranian Dissidents

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Azerbaijan's strategic location and hydrocarbon wealth are propelling it to become a major player in energy and geopolitics beyond the South Caucasus. Leveraging partnerships with Turkey and developing pipelines like the Southern Gas Corridor, Azerbaijan aims to reshape Eurasian gas markets. The resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has further unlocked opportunities for regional connectivity and economic development. However, uncertainties surrounding Armenia's future and border demarcation pose challenges to stability in the region. Various scenarios for the future range from peaceful resolution to heightened tensions with implications for Western engagement and regional dynamics.

The cause of the helicopter crash that killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi remains clouded in mystery amid the beginning of the long succession process for Iran’s Supreme Leader. It also leaves the presidency open until the June 28 elections. For now, the cause of the crash remains under investigation; however, various transcripts from calls made by an alleged survivor who was later found dead raise additional questions.

Sweden has accused Iran of using local gangs to target Israeli figures and Iranian dissidents. The UK and the Netherlands have made the same allegations. More specifically, Sweden said (based on Mossad intelligence) that the biggest criminal gang in Scandinavia and its rival were both working for Iran now. 

Discovery & Development

Japan's Inpex supplied crude oil from its share in the Kashagan oil field in Kazakhstan to a German refinery via Russia's Druzhba pipeline for the first time in April. This trial shipment speaks to Kazakhstan's efforts to diversify its oil exports through the Druzhba pipeline as Kazakhstan lacks direct access to international sea routes. While previous exports to Germany via Druzhba were mainly facilitated by Karachaganak Petroleum Operating, Inpex's successful trial opens the door for potential increased supplies from Kashagan. However, details of future shipments hinge on agreements between stakeholders. Despite inquiries, Inpex and Kashagan's operator, NCOC, remained tight-lipped on the matter, underlining the confidentiality of ongoing negotiations.

Chariot Ltd. has announced plans to conduct a flow test on the OBA-1 well in the Dartois prospect within the Loukos onshore license in Morocco. The well, drilled to a depth of 901 meters, has revealed reservoirs spanning approximately 200 meters, with a significant 70-meter interval showing promising signs of potential gas reserves. Post-drill analysis will precede flow testing to ascertain well productivity and gas resource potential. The discovery targets an estimated 12 billion cubic feet of recoverable resources, with further prospects potentially adding up to a combined 20 billion cubic feet. Chariot, holding a 75% interest, operates the license in partnership with the Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines (ONHYM), which holds the remaining 25%.

Aker BP and Vår Energi faced disappointment as two exploration wells, respectively drilled in the North Sea and Barents Sea, turned out to be dry. Aker BP's dry well, 24/6-5 Alvheim Deep, in the North Sea's production license 203, aimed to prove petroleum in Upper Jurassic reservoir rocks but encountered no reservoirs. Meanwhile, Vår Energi's dry well, 7219/6-1 Venus, in the Barents Sea's production license 1025 S, targeted Lower Palaeocene reservoir rocks but found no indications of hydrocarbons. Despite these setbacks, drilling activity continues in both regions, reflecting ongoing exploration efforts in Norway's offshore oil and gas sector.

ARA Petroleum has secured a 25-year Development License from the Ministry of Energy in Tanzania for the Ntorya natural gas discovery area, marking Tanzania's largest onshore natural gas development endeavor. Operated by ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited (APT), a subsidiary of ARA Petroleum, the project aims to address the growing domestic demand for gas. APT plans to commence immediate work, including well conversion, facility construction, and drilling activities, with an initial production target of 40 MMcfd and a subsequent increase to 140 MMcfd. Supported by a Gas Sales Agreement with the Tanzanian Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC), the project is anticipated to significantly boost Tanzania's natural gas production. With a Contingent Resource estimate of 3.45 Tcf of Gas Initially In Place (GIIP) and a wider unrisked GIIP potential of 16.4 Tcf, the project holds substantial promise for further exploration and development, positioning Tanzania as a potential regional energy hub.

BP and U.S. shale producer EOG Resources are engaged in discussions to collaborate on the development of a natural gas field off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago, with the field estimated to hold just under 1 tcf of natural gas. This partnership aims to tie back the field to another BP discovery, potentially increasing the gas reserves to approximately 1.5 tcf. Scheduled to commence production in late 2026, the gas will be directed towards Trinidad's Atlantic LNG project, a crucial component of the nation's gas export industry. The proposed joint venture underscores BP's strategic efforts to address declining natural gas production and sustain its LNG portfolio, with EOG likely to operate the Coconut field project, mirroring their existing collaboration on the Mento project.

Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions

Double Eagle, a significant player in the oil and gas sector, is reportedly considering selling its latest Permian Basin-based producer in a deal valued at over $6.5 billion, including debt. The potential sale, expected to be launched in the second half of the year, could attract interest from publicly listed producers operating in the same region. If successful, this transaction would mark one of the largest involving a privately held U.S. energy producer in recent times, following a trend of major consolidation within the industry. This move reflects a broader trend of merger and acquisition activity in the U.S. shale patch, driven by a desire among exploration and production companies to increase scale and access premium drilling locations amid a consolidation wave in the sector.

Aethon Energy announced its acquisition of Tellurian's upstream assets for $260 million, alongside a deal potentially granting access to two million tons per annum of liquefied natural gas from Tellurian's Driftwood LNG plant. This move resulted in a 13.2% surge in premarket trading for the U.S. LNG developer. Earlier reports indicated Tellurian's downsizing of its upstream gas production business amidst ongoing sale negotiations. Facing challenges, including leadership changes and project delays, Tellurian aims to sustain its Driftwood export project, seeking to leverage asset sales to bolster financial stability and advance its LNG ambitions.

ConocoPhillips announced its acquisition of Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal valued at $22.5 billion, including net debt, marking the latest merger in the U.S. shale industry. Marathon Oil shareholders will receive 0.2550 shares of ConocoPhillips common stock for each share of Marathon Oil common stock, offering premiums to recent share prices. ConocoPhillips sees the acquisition as enhancing its portfolio, with significant synergy potential and immediate benefits to earnings, cash flows, and distributions per share. The deal, subject to regulatory approval and customary closing conditions, is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2024, further reinforcing the trend of consolidation in the U.S. upstream sector, which saw record-high mergers and acquisitions spending in recent years.

Hess Corporation’s shareholders have given the green light to the company’s $53 billion merger with Chevron, a move set to bolster Chevron's presence in Guyana’s offshore oil fields. While regulatory hurdles and legal disputes have complicated the deal's timeline, industry analysts anticipate its completion pending resolution of arbitration with Exxon. However, the process may extend into 2025, reshaping the competitive landscape in the oil sector, particularly in Guyana's burgeoning fields. The approval marks a victory for Hess CEO John Hess, though shareholders have expressed concerns over delays impacting the deal's value.