Russia Remains On The Brink Of Civil War

Despite having quelled a mutiny, Russia is still not far from the edge of a civil war. The conflict between Wagner's head Prigozhin and Putin’s defense ministry is reconcilable only in the form of a major concession to Prigozhin that would give him power Putin will not want him to have. This was only the first mutiny, and likely not the last.

By way of context, Wagner mercenaries (with zero resistance) made their way from their positions in Ukraine across the border to Rostov-on-Don (in southern Russia). There, they took control of Russian military headquarters, took two Russian generals hostage, and then pushed on toward Moscow.

Under normal circumstances, Prigozhin would have been... canceled. But these aren’t usual circumstances. Since his forces are primarily responsible for any gains made in the war in Ukraine, he has been a necessary evil for Putin, and along the way, has amassed far too much power. That was made clear by how the mutiny was “quashed”. It wasn’t really quashed at all; a deal was made with Prigozhin in which he withdrew to Belarus (because Lukashenko actually brokered the deal) and all charges against him were dropped and there was no punishment at all (neither for Prigozhin nor his mercenaries) - yet. In other words, both were forced to make a concession. 

So, there was a peaceful resolution here, and it forebodes a major crisis for Putin who will have a very difficult time regaining the power he has lost. In an attempt to regain some reputational ground, Putin has now taken to the airwaves to indicate that an investigation will be launched into the $1 billion in state funds over the past year for the war in Ukraine, in addition to another $1 billion he gathered from his catering company during the same time period.

The fact that Prigozhin launched a mutiny suggests to U.S. officials that some in the Russian military establishment had advance knowledge of the mutiny and supported an overthrow of the Russian military–most notably, the former top commander in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin (arrested on Wednesday), who had previously been praised by the Wagner chief. A second general believed to have been siding with Wagner, Valery Gerasimov, has also not been seen since and may have been arrested, as well. This suggests more difficult decisions for Putin in terms of a potential purge of the military, which in turn, could negatively impact the battlefield in Ukraine for Moscow. It is clear that Prigozhin would not have attempted his mutiny had he not understood that he had some support within the Russian military establishment, which is composed of various factions in rivalry. (Prigozhin’s main point here was to undermine Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, for whom the mutiny is a massive embarrassment and a failure of his leadership, and ensure the installation of a general not aligned with Shoigu and friendly to Wagner). 

Ukraine will certainly move to take advantage of these newly exposed vulnerabilities in the Russian military structure.

Beijing threw its support behind Putin because Putin has (even though barely) managed to control the narrative here, which is being spun and the quashing of a mutiny. But Beijing is not loyal to Putin, per se–rather to the idea of Moscow as a bulwark against the West. China is not interested in betting on the losing side here but will bide its time. Beijing’s seemingly calm and cool attitude is likely shrouding the reality of its anxiety.

For NATO, the positioning of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus represents an additional potential threat to neighboring EU/NATO countries, which will be the focus of the upcoming NATO summit in mid-July.