Oil prices will rise on supply disruptions from Iran, but trade war concerns, slowing global oil demand growth, and a stronger U.S. dollar will keep a lid on prices so they are likely to end 2018 at the current price levels, according to 25 analysts polled by International Business Times / Newsweek on Friday.
At 09:58 a.m. EDT on Friday, WTI Crude was up 1.74 percent at $69.01, while Brent Crude traded up 1.73 percent at $76.39, on signs that Iran’s oil exports have started to drop off, although overall market sentiment was cautious as the U.S.-China trade dispute drags on.
Fifteen of the 25 analysts polled by International Business Times expect Iran’s sanctions to drive oil prices up, but some also warn that an escalating trade war and a stronger dollar, as well as slowing demand growth, could cap significant price gains.
The consensus forecast of the analysts expects Brent Crude at $73 a barrel at the end of 2018, and WTI Crude at $67 per barrel at the end of this year.
According to the latest monthly Reuters poll of 44 analysts and economists, WTI Crude prices are expected to average $67.32 per barrel this year, and hold steady and range-bound for the rest of 2018 and 2019, as increased supply from OPEC and the United States is expected to meet rising Asian demand and offset supply disruptions from Iran and elsewhere around the world.
In the latest monthly survey of investment banks by The Wall Street Journal, banks raised earlier this month their oil price forecasts for a tenth consecutive month, expecting Iranian supply losses and dropping inventories worldwide to boost prices. The nine banks surveyed expect Brent Crude to average $73.65 a barrel in 2018, while WTI Crude is now seen averaging just above $68 per barrel, with forecasts for both benchmarks raised by around $2 compared to the previous survey.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:
- Experts: Norway Should Stick With Oil
- Alaska’s Oil Renaissance
- Is Renewable Energy As Clean As We Think?