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Oil To Trade Sideways In The Short Term

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2019 is young indeed but we’re already starting to see some signs of what will shape oil prices this year. On the downside, it’s clear that macro-economic concerns will continue to keep a lid on prices. On the upside, OPEC+ seems to mean business on their 1.2m bpd production cut offering, the key source of bullish risk in the market. These themes should sound familiar as bearish economic concerns and bullish tight supply concerns governed oil prices in 2018.

Away from oil, markets continue to signal that something is amiss with the 10-year old global economic recovery. Stock markets were hit hard this week after Apple lowered its 2019 revenue guidance based on slowing China sales- the company credited the Trump/Xi trade war in doing so- and S&Ps traded about 16% below their all-time high print just three short months ago. Equity market waves even created a mini ‘flash crash’ in several currency pairs. In China the carnage was even more severe with the Shanghai Composite lower by about 31% in the last twelve months following the release of China’s first contraction-territory PMI reading in 19 months. Even more interestingly, bond markets have begun to price in higher expectations of dovish central banking activity in 2019 allowing the yield curve to steepen slightly while rates have moved drastically lower. Not to be left out, commodities continue to show worsening deflation risks with the Bloomberg Commodity Index falling to its lowest…




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