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Oil Market Data Is About To Get Very Ugly

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Global COVID Update

Globally, situations are emerging that all investors should be prepared for. We recommend getting out in front of the following pending realities:

- Amid the COVID pandemic, API and EIA inventory reports are being criticized for failing to reflect the reality at a time of clearly massive oversupply. Until this week’s report, the API was posting small inventory draws, while the EIA was posting small builds. Timing is key with this data that has until now been one of the biggest forces driving hedges on oil prices. It takes a bit of time to catch up here. Keep in mind that the first US lockdown wasn’t announced until March 19th. This week’s API and EIA reports capture data through 03/27, the first full week of lockdowns, so it only makes sense that this is the first week to show bloated inventories. Other states would follow with their own lockdowns, but their decreased demand will not influence the inventory numbers until next week’s reports. This week, both the API and EIA reported major builds in inventory - more than 10 million barrels. Until production falls to more closely match consumption (and it will), the builds will continue in the weeks that follow. The national guidelines for the coronavirus have been extended until the end of April. The virus’ progression in some states are behind others, and some states will be under lockdown for longer. As such, the full effect on oil demand of the lockdowns has not yet been quantified, and it…





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