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Oil Analysts Are More Divided Than Ever


1. Oil Analysts Diverge Ahead of OPEC Meeting

- OPEC+ will meet this Sunday to discuss its production targets for January 2023, amidst a widening discrepancy between oil market watchers as to what we should be expecting next year.

- As things stand currently, it is only the US Department of Energy’s EIA that sees OPEC+ pumping more oil in H1 2023, others indicate the oil group should either keep targets as they are or cut further.

- With outright prices bouncing back from the lowest levels seen this year and even WTI swinging back above $80 per barrel, the current consensus is that OPEC+ will roll over its targets.

- Confirming that forecasts have become inherently political, the IEA’s global oil demand growth for 2023 stands at a mere 1.7 million b/d whilst OPEC expects 2.55 million b/d.

2. Ukraine War to Shrink Russian Upstream Investment

- After Russian oil companies invested $45 billion into upstream projects across the country last year, this year is poised to see the lowest investment activity in years as companies postpone FIDs.

- Greenfield investments have tumbled 40% year-on-year to $8 billion, and even that is mostly coming from previous commitments such as gas production going into Power of Siberia-1 or Vostok Oil.

- Russia’s two largest energy companies, the oil giant Rosneft and the gas giant Gazprom, have seen marginal declines in capital spending this year, coming in at $12.9 billion and $10.4 billion,…

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