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Is This The Start Of A Commodity Price Supercycle?

1. Silver prices spike

- Speculators rushed into silver this week, sending prices soaring, jumping 16% in just a few days, before falling back a bit.

- Goldman Sachs said in a note that despite the volatility, the much-talked-about short squeeze in equities these days does not transfer over to commodities, which stick closer to underlying fundamentals.

- Goldman stuck with its prices forecast for silver at $30/oz, noting an “aggressive solar push” by the Biden administration and also monetary expansion, which weakens the dollar and bolsters commodities.

- “On net, silver benefits from both the dollar debasement theme and the green energy led industrial recovery,” Goldman analysts wrote.

2. Shale drilling capex way down

- Oil prices are on the rise, and the negative prices of April 2020 feel like a distant memory.

- But the financial damage to the shale industry will take a long time to heal. For a lot of companies, they won’t (or didn’t) survive.

- Roughly $52 billion worth of M&A deals were completed in the U.S. oil sector in 2020, the most in years.

- Despite the rebound in prices, shale executives are promising shareholders that they won’t return to aggressive spending practices. Capex will remain a shadow of its former self.

3. Shale cash flow could finally turn positive

- The U.S. shale industry has bled cash since its inception. A Bloomberg…


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