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Investors Are Giving Up On U.S. Shale

Friday October 25, 2019

1. OECD oil demand declines

- Last year, oil demand in Germany was weak and France posted an outright contraction, but demand rose in Italy and the UK.

- This year saw the reverse, with gains in Germany and France, but declines in Italy and the UK. “Italian oil demand has fallen y/y in 10 consecutive months, with the decline exceeding 10% in five of those months,” Standard Chartered wrote in a note.

- In August, demand contracted in all four countries – that has only happened four times over the last five years. “The combined fall of 410 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) is the second-weakest reading in six years, only exceeded in March 2019,” Standard Chartered said.

- In fact, total OECD oil demand fell by 463,000 bpd in August, the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year declines. That marks the weakest stretch for demand growth in the OECD in the last five years.

2. Canada oil sees slight setback in election

- Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau survived reelection, although lost his majority. He will need to partner with a party to his left, which potentially creates new hurdles for Canada’s oil industry.

- “The lack of pipeline capacities is likely to slow the growth in Canadian oil production,” Commerzbank said in a note.

- Alberta announced mandatory production cuts that started in January 2019, a move that helped rescue depressed…



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  • Binkley North on October 26 2019 said:
    The Canadian government is a minority but it can govern as a majority - short of complete stupidity which is not entirely ruled out with this Prime Minister - as the opposition is divided into three parties that would have to all agree in order to defeat the government... And which are the three parties least likely to agree on anything that ever existed.

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