This Is How Haftar Will Take Tripoli
On the ground in Tripoli, we’re waiting either for a ceasefire or a final push from Haftar, who seems to now have the upper hand, as evidenced by the Turkish panic that has prompted a live troop deployment on behalf of the Government of National Accord (GNA).
It was naive for the markets to think that all we needed for a ceasefire was for Haftar to show up in Moscow and have a little chat with the Russians and the Turks. With Haftar having the upper hand, particularly in terms of air power backed by LNA troops and Russian mercenaries (that Moscow denies having anything to do with), this was necessarily going to be a game of leverage.
Regardless of which version of the story you believe - the one in which Haftar was not given the red-carpet treatment by Moscow and stormed out, or the one in which Haftar wanted more time to consider the deal and simply left Moscow - there is no ceasefire deal, yet. The Germans insist that Haftar is ready to agree to a ceasefire, and that he might show up in Berlin for peace talks on Sunday.
If he does show up in Berlin, it’s unlikely that Haftar’s going home with anything less than Tripoli, or a good chunk of it (with oil revenues topping the list).
Had Haftar agreed to it, the deal Moscow offered would have been for Haftar’s LNA to retreat to pre-April 4 positions and for Turkey and the GNA to withdraw Syrian mercenaries and Turkish…
