This Is How Haftar Will Take Tripoli
On the ground in Tripoli, we’re waiting either for a ceasefire or a final push from Haftar, who seems to now have the upper hand, as evidenced by the Turkish panic that has prompted a live troop deployment on behalf of the Government of National Accord (GNA).
It was naive for the markets to think that all we needed for a ceasefire was for Haftar to show up in Moscow and have a little chat with the Russians and the Turks. With Haftar having the upper hand, particularly in terms of air power backed by LNA troops and Russian mercenaries (that Moscow denies having anything to do with), this was necessarily going to be a game of leverage.
Regardless of which version of the story you believe - the one in which Haftar was not given the red-carpet treatment by Moscow and stormed out, or the one in which Haftar wanted more time to consider the deal and simply left Moscow - there is no ceasefire deal, yet. The Germans insist that Haftar is ready to agree to a ceasefire, and that he might show up in Berlin for peace talks on Sunday.
If he does show up in Berlin, it’s unlikely that Haftar’s going home with anything less than Tripoli, or a good chunk of it (with oil revenues topping the list).
Had Haftar agreed to it, the deal Moscow offered would have been for Haftar’s LNA to retreat to pre-April 4 positions and for Turkey and the GNA to withdraw Syrian mercenaries and Turkish troops. But what Haftar is really doing…
This Is How Haftar Will Take Tripoli
On the ground in Tripoli, we’re waiting either for a ceasefire or a final push from Haftar, who seems to now have the upper hand, as evidenced by the Turkish panic that has prompted a live troop deployment on behalf of the Government of National Accord (GNA).
It was naive for the markets to think that all we needed for a ceasefire was for Haftar to show up in Moscow and have a little chat with the Russians and the Turks. With Haftar having the upper hand, particularly in terms of air power backed by LNA troops and Russian mercenaries (that Moscow denies having anything to do with), this was necessarily going to be a game of leverage.
Regardless of which version of the story you believe - the one in which Haftar was not given the red-carpet treatment by Moscow and stormed out, or the one in which Haftar wanted more time to consider the deal and simply left Moscow - there is no ceasefire deal, yet. The Germans insist that Haftar is ready to agree to a ceasefire, and that he might show up in Berlin for peace talks on Sunday.
If he does show up in Berlin, it’s unlikely that Haftar’s going home with anything less than Tripoli, or a good chunk of it (with oil revenues topping the list).
Had Haftar agreed to it, the deal Moscow offered would have been for Haftar’s LNA to retreat to pre-April 4 positions and for Turkey and the GNA to withdraw Syrian mercenaries and Turkish troops. But what Haftar is really doing is talking to his allies because this isn’t just a Libyan game anymore. Egypt will want a say, for one.
Moscow claims it’s got no skin in this game because whatever mercenaries may or may not be on the ground in Libya, they aren’t mandated by Moscow. Turkey is going all in with a state-sponsored operation. What this means is that Haftar is probably going to continue his push but he may not have as much Russian support because Turkey is, at the end of the day, important to Moscow.
Haftar is a rather gifted creator of leverage. From Moscow, he made his way to Greece - a member of the European Union that is furious with Turkey over a maritime border agreement it recently struck with Libya’s GNA. That agreement gives Turkey massive influence in the Mediterranean, at the expense of Greece and oil-rich Cyprus. That agreement was also signed by Libya’s GNA in return for Turkish military cooperation in the fight against Haftar.
The coup Haftar just pulled was to promise Greece that he would tear up this maritime border agreement with Turkey, if he were in charge. This, in turn, has prompted Greece to veto any peace deal arrived at in Berlin on Sunday.
World's Rarest Metal Sees Price Spikes
The Rhodium market - one of the world’s smallest metals markets - is attracting speculators in droves, with the new spot price per ounce reaching upwards of $8,400, compared to just $5,500 near the start of the year.
The catalyst? An anticipated increase in demand for automobiles, given the newfound optimism that the US-China trade deal will spur on economic growth. Already Asia has seen increased demand for Rhodium - and this demand is triggering more demand.
Rhodium prices were already on their way up, with tightening emissions standards spurring on demand for the rare metal. But this rapidly increasing demand combined with a small market creates much volatility.
So small is the market that it doesn’t trade on exchanges like other metals. The metal changes hands between suppliers and users - and that’s it. And most of the world’s supply comes from South Africa, where it is mined as a byproduct of platinum and nickel.
That Rhodium mainly comes from South Africa increases the supply risks in the tiny market. In recent years, mining strikes and power disruptions have both temporarily bit into production of the metal. And these are no ordinary strikes. One mining strike in 2014 in South Africa involved as many as 70,000 miners and stopped work at a PGM mine for almost six months.
Rhodium is used to make three-way catalysts, which reduces nitrous oxide emissions from light-duty vehicles.
