Guyana on Edge Amid Rumors of a Venezuelan Invasion

For newly oil-rich Guyana, this weekend will be a fateful one, with rumors that Venezuela is gathering forces to invade at the close of a referendum on the ownership of Essequibo, a disputed region that represents two-thirds of Guyana’s total territory.

Residents of Essequibo are frozen in a state of uncertainty. Rumors have not been verified, and those circulating in the media claim to be based on Brazilian intelligence. What is clear is that Guyana has become a point of political capital for the Maduro regime, and the question now is whether he will risk the temporary sanctions relief handed down by Washington to go after the hottest new oil play of in decades. Brazil has also bolstered security at its northern border ahead of the referendum.

Keep an eye on events later on Friday when the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is due to decide on Guyana’s request for certain measures to prevent the Sunday referendum from taking place. Of course, the ICJ cannot stop the referendum from going forward. Guyana’s request is intended to get something down on paper that would prevent Venezuela from seizing Essequibo with any legal backing.

On the domestic political front, after rumors began circulating in earnest on Wednesday of an imminent invasion, Venezuelan lawmaker Jacobo Torres said his country would not go to war with Guyana. Venezuela’s opposition, including 2024 presidential election candidate Maria Corina Machado, has called for the Sunday referendum to be suspended, suggesting it is nothing more than a “distraction” for Maduro during a tense campaign time.

This territorial dispute has been ongoing since the late 1800s, and Essequibo has been a part of Guyana since 1899. While it has long remained a point of international arbitration, it wasn’t until 2015, when Exxon made its first of a string of major discoveries offshore Guyana, that Maduro’s interest in pushing for a change in the territory’s status was really piqued. Now, however, the timing is related specifically to the 2024 presidential elections. When in doubt, start a war.

In the meantime, what will happen to U.S. sanctions should Maduro attempt to invade Essequibo? The temporary sanctions easing was predicated on Venezuela’s holding of free and fair elections, which Maduro would do everything in his power to avoid–sanctions relief or no. Washington knows this, of course. The bigger question is what will the U.S. response be outside of sanctions? The U.S. Army and the Guyana Defense Forces have been working for some time to strengthen their partnership. One indication that the threat of an invasion by Venezuela is real is the flurry of U.S. military activity in Guyana over the past couple of days. The top brass has been meeting, and discussions have officially been centered on “upcoming engagements to include strategic planning sessions and processes to enhance both countries’ military readiness and capabilities to respond to security threats”.