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Fossil Fuel Emissions To Peak In 2025

1. Fossil Emissions Are Set to Peak in 2025 As Energy Industries Adapt

- A new Rystad Energy study indicates carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel usage will peak in 2025, hitting 39 gigatonnes before trending lower.

- One signal of the upcoming plateau is the expectation that CO2 emissions from electricity and heat generation will peak (14.4 GT) this year, with industry emissions beginning to fall by 2027.

- Interestingly, Chinese carbon emissions are expected to start their four-year plateau in 2023, too, with India, other parts of Asia, and Africa set to take the lead in adding CO2 globally.

- Whilst China, having more than double the fossil fuel CO2 emissions of the U.S., will remain the world’s largest carbon polluter for some time, India’s industrial ascent will catapult its carbon dioxide emissions above the US and Europe by 2030.

2. Can Chinese Gas Demand Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels?

- Even though China has relaxed its Covid requirements, the market expectation that Chinese LNG importers would ramp up purchases might be premature amidst a higher pipeline gas intake and surging coal production.

- China was the world’s largest importer of LNG before peak Covid, seeing its purchases fall from 106 bcm in 2021 to 88 bcm last year, easing the supply squeeze on Europe.

- According to China’s Oilchem, LNG imports will rise by just 7% this year to 94 bcm, 14% below their 2021 peak, with…

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