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Europe's Energy Crisis To Worsen This Winter

Geopolitics ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum are several weeks away from a resumption of exploratory drilling offshore Cyprus, while French Total SA and Italian Eni are set to resume drilling in the same area in H1 2022. This drilling update coming from the Cypriot government prompted a retaliatory statement from Turkey, with Ankara - which contests waters in the area that overlap its continental shelf and fall offshore Turkish Cyprus - saying it would not be deterred from drilling nearby in contested waters. Statements like this will make investors in these Western drillers nervous, given a prior incident in 2018 when Turkish warships impeded Eni’s drillship from exploring.  Following a historically shocking detente between Israel and the UAE last year, and the signing of agreements for major energy deals shortly afterward, one of the biggest Israeli-UAE deals is now being questioned. This week, Israel’s energy minister called for the cancellation of his country’s oil pipeline deal with UAE investors, citing environmental concerns. This reflects the uneasiness, particularly within Israel, and the political backlash is now being felt, which in turn could upset diplomatic progress.  In retaliation for Poland’s harboring of “dissidents”, Belarus restricted flows through a Russian oil pipeline to Poland. There is also speculation that Belarus is “weaponizing” migrants positioned on the border attempting to enter…

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