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A Threat Of War In The Middle East

Turkey is again making provocative moves on Greek territorial waters, deploying a ship to survey near the Greek island of Kasellorizo in what Greece claims is a violation of its sovereign rights, calling on the EU to impose sanctions on Turkey if it fails to cease and desist. 

This is yet another tie-in to Turkey’s meddling in Libya on behalf of the Government of National Accord (GNA), with whom it has redrawn maritime boundaries to insert itself into any oil and gas infrastructure projects pursued by the Israelis, Greeks, and Cypriots. 

In the meantime, there is no progress on a ceasefire in Libya that would allow for a restart of oil production. The National Oil Corporation (NOC) has detailed violent clashes this week in the Brega region--the country’s ‘Oil Crescent’--between the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) and the Al-Saiqa militia. According to the NOC, both militias are controlled by Haftar, which suggests trouble in the General’s circles. The clashes were dangerously close to oil tanks in the area. 

Russian and Syrian mercenaries have occupied the Es Sider port and are camped out near the giant El Sharara oilfield to ensure a lockdown on behalf of Haftar’s LNA. There will be no ceasefire agreement until there is an agreement on revenues, which will not likely come before an audit on the central bank. But the problem is that Haftar appears to be at risk of losing control of the various militias fighting…

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