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2024 Could be a Better Year for Canadian Oil Producers

Numbers Report – January 05, 2024

In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we will take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy and metals sectors. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers.
Let’s take a look.

1. 2024 Should Have Been Canada’s Year, Might Still Be

- The long-anticipated launch of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline has been a rallying call for Canadian upstream producers to ramp up operations, benefitting from a new export conduit.
- Delays in TMX’s commissioning have restrained Canada’s export options, with the WTI-WCS spread widening from a $12 per barrel discount in July to -$25 per barrel over the winter months, as exporters need to rely on costly crude-by-rail options.
- Despite weak differentials and protracted wildfires earlier in 2023, crude production from Alberta’s oil sands are still set to increase by 3% year-on-year, adding 90,000 b/d to a new record level of 3.345 million b/d.
- With Canada’s oil industry expecting the start of pipeline fills in the 590,000 b/d TMX lines between March and May, the price of Canada’s benchmark WCS is expected to strengthen to a $13-15 per barrel discount to WTI again.

2. China Becomes World’s Largest LNG Buyer, Overtaking Japan

- Benefitting from its first full year of post-pandemic normality,…





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