JP Morgan Expects Brent Crude to Average $83 in 2024

JP Morgan has forecast an average price for Brent crude of $83 per barrel next year amid a stable market.

The forecast is based on the analysts’ expectations of resilient demand for oil in the United States, strong demand growth in emerging markets, and stability in European markets.

For 2025, JP Morgan analysts said they expected an average Brent crude price of $75 per barrel. As with many others, the forecast is based on expectations of substantial energy efficiency gains and growth in EV sales at the expense of internal combustion engine vehicles, leading to lower demand for fuels.

At the same time, the bank also expects a weakening of jet fuel demand after the recent surge.

In terms of total demand, for this year JP Morgan analysts expect growth of 1.9 million bod, weakening to 1.6 million bpd in 2024.

"Despite sustained economic headwinds, we see demand ... underpinned by robust EM, resilient US and weak but stable Europe," the bank’s analysts wrote.

"Demand composition will likely flip, with two-thirds of demand gains set to come from the overall economic expansion, while continued normalization of jet fuel would contribute the rest."

On the supply side, JP Morgan expects growth in non-OPEC production, which could undermine the cartel’s efforts to keep prices above a certain level. If non-OPEC supply growth is strong enough, it could push Brent below $70 per barrel.

In this context, JP Morgan’s analysts said they expected OPEC+ to keep the lid on production to support prices.

Meanwhile, prices fell earlier today, reversing gains made on Monday after a report saying OPEC+ was considering additional production cuts to push prices higher. Despite these plans, traders appear focused on demand uncertainty once again.

Goldman Sachs had said on Monday that it was reasonable to expect deeper OPEC+ cuts when the cartel meets next, on November 26.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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