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Global Energy Advisory February 26th 2016

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• Our boots on the ground say that Libya’s Special Deterrence Force (Radda) in Tripoli has arrested the Islamic State’s (ISIS) newly appointed “prince” in Sabartha, which is just 60 kilometers west of the capital, Tripoli. The special forces stormed a farm where Mohamed Saad Tajuri (aka Abu Suliman) and his group were hiding out. Abu Suliman and his underlings represented ISIS’ new leadership in the Libyan coastal town of Sirte, which the group controls, along with hundreds of miles of coastline. ISIS is carving a path to the Libyan interior now, heading towards the oil-producing territories in the desert, and Sirte is its main base for operations planning right now. U.S. air strikes will prove a mild hindrance to the ISIS advance at this point, as will alleged covert French operations.

• In Venezuela, where the oil price downturn has led to severe austerity measures that could lead to destabilizing riots, opposition leaders are rallying for the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro. A delegation of opposition deputies headed to Brazil earlier this week on stop one of an international tour to gather international support to legally remove Maduro from power. At issue is a 11 February emergency economic decree enforced by Maduro to deal with the global oil price squeeze. Debt defaults are looming and inflation is soaring. For the first time in decades, the government has moved to increase gas…

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