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Global Energy Advisory 29th January 2016

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

• Despite the oil price slide, Iraqi Kurdistan remains one of the cheapest places in the world to produce crude oil. This venue is wracked with problems that range from the ISIS threat and budgetary problems to an ongoing rift with Baghdad over Iraqi federal budget money and the Kurds’ unilateral export of oil. But there is still a silver lining if the Kurds can keep things together under intense domestic and regional pressures. Genel Energy says it’s producing at $1 a barrel, so the company—one of the most important on the scene here—can withstand late payments from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for exports, as well as low oil prices. Genel’s shares may have fallen more than 80 percent over the past year, but it has staying power and remains attractive—perhaps even more so now.

• A suicide bombing at a Shia mosque in eastern Saudi Arabia on the 29th of January has killed at least two people and wounded at least seven others. Saudi security forces reportedly stopped the attackers before they managed to enter the mosque, leading them to blow themselves up near the entrance. The bombing took place near the border with Yemen. This is where the Saudis are risking their border security. They’ve got boots on the ground in northern Yemen, which is a Shi’ite Houthi stronghold. We expect this front in the proxy war with Iran to lead to more attacks across the border…

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