Oil Prices Rally Towards $60

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose to their highest levels in nearly a year on Friday with Brent traders zeroing in on the psychological $60 a barrel level on economic revival hopes led by strong compliance with the planned output cuts by OPEC+.

Also contributing to the gains were a government report that showed another draw in crude stockpiles,  optimism over a speedier U.S. economic recovery on the prospect of additional stimulus from Washington and a successful rollout of the U.S. vaccination program.

OPEC+ Sticks with Oil Policy as Prices Rise Towards One-Year High

OPEC+ maintained its oil output policy at a meeting on Wednesday, a sign producers are happy that their deep supply cuts are draining inventories despite an uncertain outlook for a recovery in demand as the pandemic lingers.

A Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is “optimistic for (a) year of recovery in 2021,” OPEC said in a statement after the panel met virtually.

US Crude Stockpiles Fall, Gasoline Inventories Surge:  EIA

U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell while gasoline inventories jumped unexpectedly, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories fell by 994,000 barrels in the week to January 29 to 475.7 million barrels, their lowest since March. Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast a 446,000-barrel rise.

U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 4.5 million barrels in the week to 252.2 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel rise.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 9,000 barrels in the week to 162.8 million barrels.

In other news, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. futures fell by 1.5 million barrels in the last week. Refinery crude runs fell by 80,000 barrels per day last week, as utilization rates rose by 0.6 percentage points to 82.3% of capacity, the EIA said.

Speculators Less Pessimistic about U.S. Economic Outlook

The outlook for the economy has improved recently as progress in coronavirus vaccinations, moves by U.S. President Joe Biden to pass more fiscal stimulus, and improving economic data is encouraging aggressive speculators to add to their already establish bullish positions.

Weekly Technical Analysis

Weekly March WTI Crude Oil

Trend Indicator Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. The uptrend resumed this week when buyers took out $53.94, triggering the rally to $57.29. Taking out $57.41 will reaffirm the uptrend with $58.95 the next potential target. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next likely target a main top at $67.56.

The minor trend is also up. Taking out $51.44 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

Weekly Technical Forecast

The direction of the March WTI crude oil market the week-ending February 12 will be determined by trader reaction to $57.41.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $57.41 will signal the presence of strong buyers. This should lead to a quick move into $58.95. This is the trigger point for a breakout to the upside with $67.56 the next major target.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome $57.41 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a short-term break into $54.43, followed by $52.32 then $51.44.

Short-Term Outlook

The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines is fueling hopes of lockdowns being eased, boosting fuel demand. But even demand optimists such as OPEC do not expect oil consumption to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021. Nonetheless, this did not stop OPEC+ from following through on its pledge to continue its planned output cuts into March.

For about nine months, oil has gained support from supply curbs by major producers. OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, stuck to their supply tightening policy at meeting on Wednesday. Record OPEC+ cuts have helped to lift prices from historic lows last year.

Possibly providing a boost to prices is growing optimism over demand as traders appear to be betting on a speedy U.S. economic recovery.

On Monday, Goldman Sachs wrote that it thought Brent crude oil could hit $65 a barrel later in the year. UBS forecast Brent would reach $63 a barrel by the second half of this year and $65 by the first quarter of 2022.

Further boosting the market, a weekly supply report showed a drop in U.S. crude inventories to their lowest since March, suggesting that output cuts by OPEC+ producers are having the desired effect.

It’s hard to find any news bearish enough to derail the rally. Profit-taking due to valuation issues could help put in a short-term top, but it looks like it is going to take a failure in the vaccine rollout or another surge in coronavirus cases to bring this rally to a screeching halt over the near-term.