Sign Up To Our Free Newsletter

Join Now

Thanks for subscribing to our free newsletter!


  • 4 minutes IMPORTANT ARTICLE BY OILPRICE.COM EDITOR - "Naked Short Selling: The Truth Is Much Worse Than You Have Been Told"
  • 5 minutes “Cushing Oil Inventories Are Soaring Again” By Tsvetana Paraskova
  • 7 minutes United States LNG Exports Reach Third Place
  • 17 mins Texas forced to have rolling black outs. Not from downed power line , but because the wind energy turbines are frozen.
  • 14 hours Retired RAF pilot wins legal challenge over a wind farm
  • 12 hours U.S. Presidential Elections Status - Electoral Votes
  • 4 hours Speaker Pelosi, "Tear Down This Wall"
  • 10 hours NYT:  The Supreme Court’s order (Re:  Trump’s tax returns) set in motion a series of events that could lead to the startling possibility of a criminal trial of a former U.S. president
  • 3 hours Interest article about windmills and waterwheels in Europe
  • 2 hours Joe Biden's Presidency
  • 5 hours Disaster looming in UK offshore wind power
  • 14 hours Wednesday Nikki Haley reached out to Trump for meeting at Mar-a-lago. Trump said No ! You blew it Nikki . . .
  • 2 days Minerals, Mining and Industrial Ecology
  • 13 hours Scientist clone endangered Black Footed Ferret from Ferret that died 30 years ago . It's a 100% exact genomic match.
  • 21 hours Pipeline vs Train vs Ship to Transport Crude Oil.
  • 23 hours NG spot prices hit triple digits for weekend delivery
  • 2 days Chance for (Saudi)Arabian peninsula having giant onshore Gas too?
Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

More Info

Premium Content

Trading Giant Gunvor: $60 Could Be The Ceiling For Oil Prices

Oil prices are unlikely to soar much above the $60 per barrel mark, considering that this price level would incentivize a lot of oil supply, including from the United States, Torbjörn Törnqvist, chief executive at one of the world’s largest independent oil traders, Gunvor, told Bloomberg on Friday.

“Once you hit $60 a barrel, any oil production out there is profitable, and the incentive for oil producers to hold back erodes real fast,” Törnqvist told Bloomberg in an email.

Brent Crude prices were cents away from reaching $60 early on Friday, after a strong rally this week, driven by the ongoing production cuts from OPEC+, the extra million-barrel-per-day reduction in Saudi Arabia’s output, strong Asian demand, and risk appetite on the markets.

Yet, according to Gunvor’s chief executive, these gains will be capped, especially in the first half of this year.

“The high-$50s are the higher end of our expectation for the first half, and we’re not sure we will see much higher,” Törnqvist told Bloomberg.

Global demand for oil products right now is still lagging behind the levels from just before the pandemic and is up to 5 million barrels per day lower than at the start of 2020, the executive said.

China is a strong driver of demand, while Europe is the worst-hit market. The U.S. is more stable than Europe with just “a couple million barrels loss in demand,” according to Törnqvist.

At the start of this week, Goldman Sachs issued another bullish message for oil markets, saying in a note that it expected global oil demand to recover to pre-pandemic levels of 100 million bpd by August this year. According to Goldman, the oil market was in a deficit of 2.3 million bpd in the final quarter of 2020. With supply still tight at the start of 2021, the immediate future for prices is bright despite expectations for a slow demand recovery.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage

Leave a comment
  • Mamdouh Salameh on February 05 2021 said:
    Even if it is one of the world’s largest independent oil traders, Gunvor can’t just pick an oil price out of thin air and say this could be the ceiling for oil prices without providing the basis of its projection.

    I have been for quite a long time projecting that Brent crude price is heading towards $60 a barrel in the first quarter of 2021 rising further to $70-$80 in the third quarter and averaging $60-$65 in 2021. Moreover, Global oil demand is projected to recover to pre-pandemic level of 101 million barrels a day (mbd) by the middle of 2021.

    But I based my projections on improving fundamentals in the global oil market, almost 100% compliance by OPEC+ members with the agreed production cuts, an expanding global rollout vaccination and accelerating depletion of global oil inventories in addition to growing demand for refined products in the United States and record-breaking crude oil imports by both China and India.

    It is no good for Gunvor’s chief executive, to say that once the oil price hits $60, the incentive for oil producers to hold back erodes real fast. This is a fact of life. But with the global oil industry delaying (probably indefinitely) $131 bn of oil and gas projects that were slated for approval in 2020, crude oil prices could be headed towards $100 by the end of 2022 and 2023 because of global oil supply deficit that could hit 15 mbd.

    Furthermore, if Brent crude is going to hit $60 any moment now despite the fact that the bulk of the global economy is still in lockdown, it will certainly rise to $80 this year with the widening of the global rollout of vaccines.

    High oil prices invigorate the global economy by stimulating the three biggest chunks that make up the global economy, namely, global investments, the economies of the oil-producing countries and the global oil industry thus creating more demand for oil.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

Leave a comment

Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News