• 3 minutes Don't sneeze. Coronavirus is a threat to oil markets and global economies
  • 5 minutes Boris Johnson taken decision about 5G Huawei ban by delay (fait accompli method)
  • 9 minutes This Battery Uses Up CO2 to Create Energy
  • 12 minutes Shale Oil Fiasco
  • 7 hours Historian Slams Greta. I Don't See Her in Beijing or Delhi.
  • 2 hours Governments that wasted massive windfalls
  • 1 day Let’s take a Historical walk around the Rig
  • 5 hours We're freezing! Isn't it great? The carbon tax must be working!
  • 9 hours Trump has changed into a World Leader
  • 3 days US (provocations and tech containment) and Chinese ( restraint and long game) strategies in hegemony conflict
  • 20 hours Beijing Must Face Reality That Taiwan is Independent
  • 1 day Yesterday POLEXIT started (Poles do not want to leave EU, but Poland made the decisive step towards becoming dictatorship, in breach of accession treaty)
  • 1 day Tesla Will ‘Disappear’ Or ‘Lose 80%’ Of Its Value
  • 3 days Might be Time for NG Producers to Find New Career
  • 27 mins 2nd Annual Great Oil Price Prediction Challenge of 2019
  • 7 hours Trump capitulated
Alt Text

How Important Is The Suriname Oil Discovery?

Guyana has been the offshore…

Alt Text

Is Iran Preparing To Send Oil Back To $100?

Brent oil prices have failed…

Alt Text

Goldman Sachs: This Oil Rally Won’t Last

Investment bank Goldman Sachs thinks…

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

More Info

Premium Content

Barclays: Oil Prices To Drop This Quarter

The combination of bullish indicators that boosted oil prices last month are unlikely to last, and the price of oil in the third quarter is expected to drop from current levels, Barclays said in a recent research note.

“Prices have moved higher, due to a perfect combination of a favorable macro environment, a seasonal uptick in consumption, continued inventory drawdowns, and geopolitical unrest,” according to Barclays’ note, as quoted by CNBC.

However, the bank noted that “Certain factors that supported prices in July are unlikely to last, and we expect a downward correction during this quarter.”

On the last day of July this past Monday, WTI prices closed above US$50 for the first time in more than two months. The price of WTI gained 9 percent in July, the best month since April 2016.

But as we are moving into the second month of the third quarter, Barclays is not optimistic that prices would hold.

“Fundamentals remain shaky this quarter, therefore any rally that occurs before more substantive inventory draws would be short-lived,” the bank reckons.

At 9:45am ET on Friday, WTI Crude was trading at US$49.03, and Brent Crude was trading at US$51.09.

Although Barclays predicts that oil prices face a downward correction in Q3, they expect an upswing as we move into Q4, mostly due to inventory drawdowns. Related: Did The Arab Spring Disarm OPEC?

“Inventory drawdowns, Venezuela, and the Asian macro backdrop will likely play a more prominent role in the remainder of the year,” the bank said, adding that it sees the price of Brent rising to around US$54 per barrel in the fourth quarter this year.  

In terms of geopolitical risks that could lift the price of oil, Barclays has recently estimated that if the U.S. were to impose oil sanctions on Venezuela—a possibility not completely ruled out yet—oil prices could rise by as much as US$7 per barrel.  

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage




Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play