• 3 minutes Could Venezuela become a net oil importer?
  • 7 minutes Reuters: OPEC Ministers Agree In Principle On 1 Million Barrels Per Day Nominal Output Increase
  • 12 minutes Battle for Oil Port: East Libya Forces In Full Control At Ras Lanuf
  • 8 hours Oil prices going Up? NO!
  • 9 hours Renewables to generate 50% of worldwide electricity by 2050 (BNEF report)
  • 9 hours Reuters: OPEC Ministers Agree In Principle On 1 Million Barrels Per Day Nominal Output Increase
  • 14 hours Oil prices going down
  • 2 days Gazprom Exports to EU Hit Record
  • 17 hours Could oil demand collapse rapidly? Yup, sure could.
  • 2 days Oil Buyers Club
  • 2 days Could Venezuela become a net oil importer?
  • 8 hours China’s Plastic Waste Ban Will Leave 111 Million Tons of Trash With Nowhere To Go
  • 14 hours Saudi Arabia turns to solar
  • 1 hour Kenya Eyes 200+ Oil Wells
  • 1 hour Are Electric Vehicles Really Better For The Environment?
  • 16 hours Battle for Oil Port: East Libya Forces In Full Control At Ras Lanuf
  • 1 day Russia's Energy Minister says Oil Prices Balanced at $75, so Wants to Increase OPEC + Russia Oil by 1.5 mbpd
  • 16 hours Tesla Closing a Dozen Solar Facilities in Nine States
  • 7 hours OPEC soap opera daily update
Damir Kaletovic

Damir Kaletovic

Damir Kaletovic is a veteran investigative journalist covering Europe and the Middle East, and a senior consultant for Divergente Research.

More Info

Trending Discussions

Barclays: Expect $51 Oil This Year

Pump jack

As oil continues to pair Monday gains on soaring U.S. crude inventory, Barclays is calling a $51-per-barrel price on WTI by the third and fourth quarters of this year, and expects Brent to fall to $57 by the end of the year.

The bank forecast that West Texas Intermediate prices will fall to $58 in the second quarter, before continuing their decline.

Recently, the oil market has been supported by supply disruption concerns, emanating most prominently from the Middle East.

However, while demand is being pushed up thanks to global economic growth, coupled with geopolitical risk that threatens to remove more supply from the market, that short-term deficit will head into surplus again by the second half of the year, according to Barclays.

U.S. crude oil production has risen by nearly 25 percent in less than two years, hitting above 10 million barrels per day. For the week ending March 16, U.S. production had increased from 10.381 million to 10.407 million bpd.

(Click to enlarge)

Also weighing on prices is an unexpected build in U.S. crude oil inventories of 1.6 million barrels, according to the EIA.

Oil prices had already dropped on Tuesday with data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showing a 5.3-million-barrel build.

While the official EIA data shaved 4 million barrels off of this, the market response was flat to negative as the expectations had been for a draw, not a build. Related: Oil Prices Fall As EIA Confirms Inventory Build

Fitch is predicting that U.S. oil production will grow by 1.7 million barrels per day this year and is expecting prices to stay between $50 and $60.

At this rate, supply is growing at a faster pace that could outpace upticks in demand, even with Venezuelan oil production on the steep decline and indications that heightened trouble is brewing between the U.S. and Iran.

Tuesday was the reckoning with this situation, and the bulls have been downsized.

By Damir Kaletovic for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Back to homepage

Trending Discussions


Leave a comment
  • citymoments on March 28 2018 said:
    Does the Barclay oil expert know: there are always inventory builds almost every year for the last ten yeas between Jan-Mar, this is the heavy maintenance season for most refineries around the world.
  • John Brown on March 28 2018 said:
    Finally a forecast that looks real rather than wishful. US production is soaring. I hope WTI stays around $60, but there is plenty of oil sloshing around & more coming. Especially as prices stay above $60. The industry will fight reality though. So it will be interesting to watch. Lots of forces will be working hard to ignore reality & talk prices higher.
  • Tom Pardo on March 28 2018 said:
    All of these oil predictions are hilarious. I’ve got $70 it’s $70 in December 2018.
  • Dale Lipscomb on May 17 2018 said:
    So it’s now 6 weeks after Barclays predicted $51 oil in late 2018 and it’s now $72. Barclays needs to sharpen their pencil.

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News