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Why Erdogan Is Expected To Win Turkey's Presidential Runoff


With Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections heading into a run-off vote on May 28th, Erdogan has the new god of selective censorship (Elon Musk on his Twitter throne) on his side, and he could end up winning the second-round vote with a stability argument. Financial markets seem to be fairly confident that Erdogan will win. This is clear with a weakening of Turkish financial assets as the market prepares for another five-year term for the near-autocrat and his extremely unorthodox economic policies.

While Erdogan won 49.51% in Sunday’s presidential vote, and CHP candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu won 45%, it was only enough for a run-off vote, with the winner requiring over 50%. However, in the parliamentary vote, Erdogan’s AKP and partners won 322 of the 600 seats up for grabs, which means he will control parliament regardless. The argument that is likely to resonate with many Turkish voters is the one Erdogan is making sure is circulated incessantly: Because his party already will control parliament, a CHP president would introduce instability and potentially paralyze the government. Voting for Erdogan in the second round, then, is being billed as the only path to stability.

Urban Turks opposed to Erdogan have expressed shock at the mentality of voters in Sunday’s election. What was most shocking was the fact that the regions where a devastating earthquake killed tens of thousands of people and left many more homeless, voted for Erdogan, despite clear evidence…

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