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What to Expect From Big Oil This Earnings Season

Next week, most individual investors will be focused on tech earnings. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG: GOOGL) will report on Tuesday, followed by Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META) on Thursday, meaning that five of the so called “magnificent seven” will grace us with their performance reports over just a couple of days. Obviously, given the enormous weighting those stocks have in both indices and most people’s portfolios after recent massive outperformance, that is important.

Still, some people, including probably most of the readers of this particular newsletter, will be focused elsewhere. Three “big oil” companies will also report next week: Shell PLC (SHEL) on Thursday, followed by Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) on Friday. In the interest of full disclosure, I should say that at the time of writing, I own SHEL and CVX. The former is a long-term position that I will certainly still have when you read this and when the earnings come out, while the latter is a trading position initiated on the drop below $142 on January 18th. The initial intention was to cut that before the release next week, but I have recently changed my minds about that and will probably hold it through earnings. I also intend to buy CVX before they report.

So, what changed my mind? What can energy investors expect from those earnings and the subsequent investor and analyst calls?

Basic expectations can be easily assessed based on the consensus…

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