Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
In what is perhaps Ukraine’s most significant counteroffensive since the war began, Ukrainian forces began a series of attacks on the Russian frontline last week, claiming earlier this week to have retaken some half a dozen villages. Russia denies these claims, with pro-Russian military bloggers posting pictures of what they say are Ukraine’s destroyed Leopard-2 tanks. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian reporting from the front line is reliable, and the battlefield situation remains extremely dynamic. Earlier this week, in retaliation against Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Russia launched a missile strike on Zelensky’s hometown in central Ukraine, killing 11 people. This week we also heard a rare concession by Putin vis-a-vis the unpreparedness of Russia for the numerous incursions in the Belgorod border region with Ukraine. Meanwhile, the rivalry between the Russian Defense Ministry and Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries continued to intensify, with Putin decreeing that Wagner would have to sign a contract with the Defense Ministry, essentially to place itself under the military’s control. Wagner refused, and the contract in question instead went to Wagner’s other rival, Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov’s new mercenary group (Akhmat). The contract largely suggested that Wagner has no legal status without it. Wagner said on Tuesday that it was not sure whether its mercenaries would continue to fight in Ukraine amid the showdown with the Defense…
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
In what is perhaps Ukraine’s most significant counteroffensive since the war began, Ukrainian forces began a series of attacks on the Russian frontline last week, claiming earlier this week to have retaken some half a dozen villages. Russia denies these claims, with pro-Russian military bloggers posting pictures of what they say are Ukraine’s destroyed Leopard-2 tanks. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian reporting from the front line is reliable, and the battlefield situation remains extremely dynamic. Earlier this week, in retaliation against Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Russia launched a missile strike on Zelensky’s hometown in central Ukraine, killing 11 people. This week we also heard a rare concession by Putin vis-a-vis the unpreparedness of Russia for the numerous incursions in the Belgorod border region with Ukraine. Meanwhile, the rivalry between the Russian Defense Ministry and Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries continued to intensify, with Putin decreeing that Wagner would have to sign a contract with the Defense Ministry, essentially to place itself under the military’s control. Wagner refused, and the contract in question instead went to Wagner’s other rival, Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov’s new mercenary group (Akhmat). The contract largely suggested that Wagner has no legal status without it. Wagner said on Tuesday that it was not sure whether its mercenaries would continue to fight in Ukraine amid the showdown with the Defense Ministry.
We will not spend much time on the antics of Belarus’ Lukashenka, as the Russian-controlled dictator takes to the podium loudly to let the West know that his country has started to receive Russia’s tactical nukes. Lukashenka has lost a significant amount of credibility since the invasion of Ukraine, and diplomats globally are refraining from taking his nuclear threats and comments seriously.
Washington’s expectations that Turkey’s newly re-elected president, Erdogan, would now ratify Sweden’s bid for NATO once his rule was secured have been tampered with, with Erdogan on Wednesday resisting pressure to do so ahead of NATO’s July meeting. Negotiations are still ongoing, but Erodgan is holding out for more, in the form of “security guarantees”.
Discovery & Development
Aker BP has announced a discovery upon completion of drilling at the longest exploration well ever on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The Ost Frigg Beta/Epsilon well is in the Yggdrasil area. The updated discovery size estimate is 53-90 million boe. (Earlier estimates were slightly lower). The Yggdrasil development is slated to begin production in 2027.
Romanian OMV Petrom (majority owned by Austria’s OMV) announced a discovery of crude oil and natural gas that would represent the largest find the company has made in decades, estimating the area under exploration holds over 30 million boe of recoverable resources. on barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of recoverable resources.
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions
Duke Energy Corp will sell its Commercial Renewables business to Brookfield Renewable in a ~$2.8-billion deal. The deal will net Brookfield more than 3,400 megawatts of utility-scale solar, wind, and battery storage, among other new developments in the pipeline.
Spanish energy giant Iberdrola has finalized a $6-billion deal to sell a large piece of its Mexico-based power generation portfolio, giving Mexico state control over power plant assets that produce some 10% of the country’s electricity. Iberdrola has suffered from AMLO's nationalization policies and the sale is meant to reduce exposure.
French TotalEnergies will acquire a 17.5% stake in US LNG developer NextDecade in a deal that will help the smaller company’s Rio Grande LNG export project in Texas move forward. They are now expecting an FDI on Rio Grande by the end of this month.
