1. European Natural Gas Prices Start to Climb
- Bottoming out in early June, European spot natural gas prices have been on the rise ever since and are currently flirting with the €40 per MWh threshold amid Norwegian supply disruptions.
- Even though Norway’s Hammerfest LNG export terminal has solved its leakage issues and is set to resume loadings this weekend, maintenance at gas processing plants in Nyhamna and Kollsnes is keeping gas flows capped.
- Above-normal temperatures are expected in most of Northwest Europe through the upcoming month, with daily peaks well above 30° C (90° F), which should also boost the continent’s cooling needs.
- Cooling down the bullish summer sentiment, Goldman Sachs said weaker demand and available LNG volumes will mitigate the impact of lower Norwegian supply and warm weather, sending TTF prices sideways.
2. Iraqi Compliance with OPEC+ Cuts Has a Distinct Kurdish Flavour
- As oil production from Iraqi Kurdistan is still yet to see any resumption, federal authorities in Baghdad continue to play hardball with Erbil, having passed a new 2023-2025 budget this week.
- The new budget mandates Kurdistan to hand over 400,000 b/d of its oil production to state oil marketer SOMO, in return for its allocated share of 12.6% of federal funding.
- As Iraq has agreed to a voluntary OPEC+ production cut of 211,000 b/d, a resumption of Kurdish production to pre-February…