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The Only Really Bullish Factor In Oil Markets


1. Chinese Demand Becomes the Only Really Bullish Factor for Oil

- Whilst oil prices were undergoing one of the most spectacular declines in recent months with WTI plunging below the $70 per barrel mark, international organizations have maintained their bullish views on 2023.

- The IEA upped its estimate for global oil demand growth in 2023 by another 100,000 b/d to a net 2 million b/d increase year-on-year, taking the total to 102 million b/d.

- Poised for a 7.5 million b/d year-on-year growth between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023, jet fuel is bound to lead the uptick in terms of products, with Chinese air traffic mobility now already above pre-pandemic levels.

- OPEC’s oil demand increase in 2023 is even more ambitious at 2.32 million b/d, with almost a third of it coming from China which is set to grow by 710,000 b/d this year, seeing its year-on-year growth increased for the second straight month.

2. Something’s Wrong In the State of California

- California’s Public Utilities Commission has launched an investigation to determine whether this winter’s natural gas spike in the state was due to factors outside of normal market dynamics.

- The odd thing is that ever since Kinder Morgan’s (NYSE:KMI) El Paso Line 2000 exploded in August 2022, flows from the Permian Basin were bound to be constrained to 2.7 BCf/d as repair works are taking months to complete.

- At the peak of the price spike in…

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