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The OPEC+ Compliance Struggle

1. Rig count hits record low

- The U.S. rig count has fallen to record lows, plunging to 339 rigs on May 12. Since record-keeping began by Baker Hughes back in 1987, the rig count has never been this low.

- The rig count has fallen by 56 percent since March 17.

- The Permian, Eagle Ford and the Bakken have accounted for the bulk of the losses – 308 rigs, or 71 percent of the total decline.

- Big shifts in the rig count typically lead to production changes, although with an average lag of about 4 months. Shut-ins due to storage constraints have led to immediate oil supply losses, but the effects of the plunging rig count have yet to really show up in the data.

2. OPEC+ will struggle with compliance

- Oil prices have rocketed up into the $30s on the deep supply losses in the U.S. occurring alongside an uptick in demand.

- A long list of analysts have predicted a supply deficit occurring as soon as June or July, persisting for much of the rest of 2020.

- But any room for more production will likely come from OPEC+ countries, which just agreed to painful production cuts.

- “[I]t is always easier to bring back voluntary production cuts than involuntary ones, while there is also ample historical precedent for this,” JBC Energy wrote in a note.

- “Yup, we are forecasting major OPEC+ non-compliance to the tune of over 4 million b/d in 2021,” JBC said, referencing the current production…





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  • Maxander on May 22 2020 said:
    well, Who says that production cut compliance is painful?
    With over production oil prices went below zero, lessons learnt. So what is more painful? oil prices falling below zero or production cuts? Ths answer is obvious.
    Now some 40-50% production cut can't be painful really.
    It saves operational cost, holds the reserves for longer duration, producers receive much better prices for their produce although less volume.
    My gut says that the production cut even without compliance will remain for several years 4,5 to almost 10 years from 2020.
    2010 to 2020 we saw overproduction. Now its reverse cycle for next 10 years.

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