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The Global Oil Surplus Is Gone

Friday May 18, 2018

In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we’ll take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy sector. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers.

Let’s take a look.

1. Inventory surplus officially gone

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- The IEA concluded that OECD oil stocks fell by 26.8 million barrels in March, declining to 2,819 million barrels.
- Importantly, stocks now stand 1 million barrels below the five-year average, officially hitting the highly-anticipated threshold that OPEC has held up as the motivation for keeping 1.8 million barrels of oil per day off of the market. Since the deal was inaugurated, stocks have declined by 233 million barrels.
- Stocks are now at a three-year low and could continue to decline, raising the odds of higher prices ahead.
- In a warning, however, the IEA revised down demand growth for 2018 from 1.5 mb/d to 1.4 mb/d, as high oil prices are taking a “toll.”

2. Venezuela drains oil market

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- Venezuela’s oil production declined by more than 40,000 bpd last month, falling to just over 1.4 mb/d.
- The South American nation is now producing 550,000 bpd less than its production limit, which means it has taken more than the equivalent of Saudi Arabia’s pledged cut off of the market.
- Venezuela,…

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