• 4 minutes England Running Out of Water?
  • 7 minutes Trump to Make Allies Pay More to Host US Bases
  • 10 minutes U.S. Shale Output may Start Dropping Next Year
  • 14 minutes Washington Eyes Crackdown On OPEC
  • 2 hours One Last Warning For The U.S. Shale Patch
  • 9 hours Once Upon A Time... North Korea Abruptly Withdraws Staff From Liaison Office
  • 10 hours Oil Slips Further From 2019 Highs On Trade Worries
  • 2 hours Modular Nuclear Reactors
  • 1 day Chile Tests Floating Solar Farm
  • 10 hours Poll: Will Renewables Save the World?
  • 3 hours Climate change's fingerprints are on U.S. Midwest floods
  • 5 hours Read: OPEC THREATENED TO KILL US SHALE
  • 2 days China's E-Buses Killing Diesel Demand
  • 2 days China's Expansion: Italy Leads Europe Into China’s Embrace
  • 2 days Trump Tariffs On China Working
  • 2 days Biomass, Ethanol No Longer Green
  • 1 day US-backed coup in Venezuela not so smooth
  • 2 days New Rebate For EVs in Canada

The February Hangover In Oil Markets

Refinery

Have you ever celebrated an event too much? The next day isn’t always very fun. Sometimes the most enjoyable events in life such as holiday parties, weddings and birthdays are followed by terrifically awful mornings necessitating a nice long nap.

The same goes for oil and stock markets in February following a January which included an 8% jump in S&Ps and the best gain for WTI (nearly 18%) on record. So far February has included a 1% drop in WTI, flat S&Ps, earnings forecasts downgrades for 1Q and a growing chorus of negativity from financial commentators of all shapes and sizes. A quick scan of the newswires this week offers a call from fund manager Kyle Bass that the US will enter a recession in 2020, a note from Morgan Stanley’s head equity strategist that ‘earnings recession is here’ and results from a Duke University survey of US CFOs stating they overwhelmingly expect a recession in the next two years.

Wasn’t it only four short weeks ago that a newly dovish US Fed was going to place a theoretical disco ball over global risk markets and lead us to a wonderfully bullish 2019? Have the facts of the market outlook changed substantially since the calendar turned to February 1?

We don’t think so. While there are obviously nagging bearish factors at work such as anemic growth, high existing crude oil and gasoline supplies and the US/China trade battle the truth is that the two key themes driving crude oil prices in…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News