The Fate Of Libyan Oil Hangs In The Balance

Haftar Waiting Out Another Turkish Misstep in Libya

Last week, international media said that Libyan oil production had dropped to just under 164,000 bpd. Less than a week later, on Monday, Feb 17th, the Libyan National Oil Company (NOC) said that oil production was down to just under 136,000 bpd. That represents a financial loss of over $1.6 billion.  

The NOC is still supplying the Central and Eastern regions with enough to meet their transport and domestic needs, though storage facilities in and around Tripoli are facing supply shortages. 

It is not a sustainable situation, even as the media claim that both sides in the conflict are in it for the long haul. Money will dictate otherwise.

The tension on the ground this week was palpable, and more confusing than ever as Libyans celebrated the revolution that overthrew Ghaddafi on February 17 eight years ago. After eight years of chaos hijacked by various militias, no one knows exactly what they’re celebrating. 

It will be important to watch what Turkey does next because it’s in a tight spot and has overstepped in multiple venues. It’s being overrun by the Syrian Army and the Russians in Syria, and it’s sent Syrian mercenaries (with false promises) to fight in Libya. They are not likely to represent a loyal mercenary force when they realize they won’t get what they want back at home in Syria. Again, that is leverage for Haftar in Tripoli, where he’s shown no signs of relaxing his offensive. 

The Syrian army is not likely to overpower the Turks on their own, which means that the ball is in Russia’s court right now. What happens in Syria next, and specifically in Idlib, will in part dictate what happens in Libya next. 

All the fuss on Wednesday about the Government of National Accord (GNA) withdrawing from the “peace talks” because Haftar’s forces attacked the port in Tripoli, was – again - about Turkey. Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) launched a barrage of artillery fire on the port in what it said was an attempt to destroy a vessel carrying weapons from Turkey to the GNA - a claim the Turks deny. But that denial came as Erdogan criticized the European Union’s move to enforce an arms embargo on Libya. 

It’s also lost on no one on the ground that the first-ever trip to Libya by U.S. Ambassador Norland was to visit Haftar, not the GNA or Prime Minister Sarraj. 

Tesla: Still Supercharging

There appears to be no end to Tesla’s triumph these days. Wall Street this week doubled its price target because Tesla is positioning itself to become a battery supplier to other EV manufacturers. That would give Tesla two major crowns to wear, across two separate but related industries.  

Year-to-date, Tesla stock has flown. This week, it’s skyrocketed.

Sure, everyone’s excited at the prospect of the launch later this year of the Model Y, but there’s a much bigger story behind the recent price target upgrades. A Piper Sandler analyst mid-week put a 12-month price target of $928 on Tesla. That was a huge jump from the analyst’s earlier target of $729. Why? Precisely because of energy. 

The huge price target on Tesla indicates that someone is paying attention and realizes that Tesla isn’t just about EVs (and even ignoring the solar ups and downs): Tesla is about energy, batteries and energy storage. 

Not only does Piper Sandler see a $165-billion annually solar roof business, but it sees another $70-billion market for Tesla’s Powerwall energy storage batteries. It also could end up not just being the king of EVs, but the king of batteries and the supplier to everyone else. That’s a lot of crowns to wear, and they’re all quite lucrative - especially when you consider the mega-trend of investing in environmentally friendly endeavors. 

In breaking news, Tesla just got another boost for its German battery factory late on Thursday, when a German court threw out an injunction that was keeping Tesla from clearing trees for its factory near Berlin.